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Population Projections

Population projections for Scotland on a country, NHS health board, health and social care partnership and council area level by sex and single year of age.

More information and supporting material to this topic area can be found on the ISD Scotland - Population Projections website.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Field Value
Source Base year population data is taken from the latest mid-year population estimates. Past trends in fertility, mortality, life expectancy and migration are used for setting assumptions for the projections. The international migration assumption is based largely on International Passenger Survey (IPS) data. The cross-border migration assumptions are based on National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) data. (https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections)
Author National Records of Scotland, The Office for National Statistics
Maintainer Geography, Population and Deprivation Support Team
Version 1.0
Last Updated February 10, 2025, 13:24 (GMT)
Created April 17, 2019, 11:18 (BST)
Contact Address Public Health Scotland, Gyle Square, 1 South Gyle Crescent, Edinburgh EH12 9EB
Subject Population and Migration
Frequency Biennial
Time frame of data and timeliness 2022 mid-year estimate is used as the base year for the latest projection at national level. Projections at sub-national levels are 2018-based. Population projections are made for 25 years from the base year.
Coverage Data covers Scotland at country, NHS health board, health and social care partnership and council area level for 25 years from the date of publication.
Completeness Projections are 100% complete for Scotland at country level and were last published in 2025. NHS health board, health and social care partnership, and council area levels are were last published in 2020, cover 2018 - 2043, and are yet to be updated to 2022-2047.
Accuracy The assumptions about future patterns in fertility, mortality and migration are based on analysis of past trends. There is limited accuracy of migration estimates as there is no comprehensive registration system in the UK.
Continuity of data Data covers 25 years from the year of publication and is based on the most recent mid-year estimate. Data is therefore subject to change in future releases.
Concepts and definitions All data is presented for calendar years.
Disclosure No disclosure has been applied.
Revision statement Revised by NRS and ONS in January 2023. New assumptions were developed following the latest expert advice and latest provisional estimates of international migration.
Official statistics designation National Statistics
Relevance and key uses of the statistics Providing an estimate of the future population of Scotland. These numbers are used in national planning in numerous fields including health.
Format CSV
Language English
Links

NRS Population Projections

PHS Population Projections